tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2759913671101666257.post4608153778060378512..comments2023-05-24T06:02:06.480-05:00Comments on Chuck's Chatter: Living and dying with the modelsChuck Doswellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03099345055614900157noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2759913671101666257.post-12477196687384087342011-02-25T22:27:37.062-06:002011-02-25T22:27:37.062-06:00Clearly, I failed to make clear to what "this...Clearly, I failed to make clear to what "this path" refers - anyone who knows me and has read my many writings on this subject would know that "this path" refers to following automated guidance to the exclusion of real meteorological analysis and diagnosis. Sorry for that misunderstanding.Chuck Doswellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03099345055614900157noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2759913671101666257.post-6737011888734986512011-02-25T11:02:44.873-06:002011-02-25T11:02:44.873-06:00Could you explain a little more?
"Following t...Could you explain a little more?<br />"Following this path makes the eventual demise of the public sector forecaster all the more certain." <br />Are you suggesting that "weather analysis" and breaking down relevant atmospheric "forcings" will lead to the demise of public sector forecasters? I have found that such analysis often leads to forecasts far better than that of which the models themselves can deliver.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2759913671101666257.post-50030245288481343622011-02-25T10:17:41.782-06:002011-02-25T10:17:41.782-06:00Following this path makes the eventual demise of t...Following this path makes the eventual demise of the public sector forecaster all the more certain. Even if forecasters only care about their own selfish interests (which I don't believe is generally the case), they should be working very hard to add value to objective guidance products. In my perception of things, this is only true for a small minority of them! They're hastening their own irrelevance!!Chuck Doswellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03099345055614900157noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2759913671101666257.post-20786001052887367302011-02-24T00:30:26.090-06:002011-02-24T00:30:26.090-06:00Nice post regarding what I refer to as "model...Nice post regarding what I refer to as "model-casting". It does seem many times that this is the preferred method--and many forecasters/mets are more than willing to take the models verbatim and as truth with no consideration for weather analysis. Even the process of data assimilation and how models develop a forecast is sometimes not considered. What does this mean? I try to show that a "weather analysis" or assessment can result in better forecasts than simply buying the models verbatim. This is one example here where the NCEP models were drastically different--but it was possible to make a solid forecast even when the guidance spread was huge only 48 hours out. http://jasonahsenmacher.wordpress.com/2010/11/15/the-importance-of-model-timing-ohio-valley-and-se-rain-event/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com