Safe, sane, ... and boring!

Yesterday was the 4th of July but it coincided here in Norman with thunderstorms (natural fireworks?), so the formal festivities (the official fireworks display) set for after sunset had to be postponed until tonight. In the post-frontal cool of the night this evening, after a very enjoyable early evening spent with friends, we watched the distant "official" Norman fireworks display from our own deck.

In the process, some local neighborhood patriots were motivated to set off some interesting fireworks of their own. Vickie and I were disinclined to call the Norman gendarmes. Our neighbors who set off these fireworks undoubtedly had spent some $$ on their enthusiastic celebration. Why should we be the wet blankets?

But this got me thinking - yes, fireworks are dangerous and may even (in extreme cases) be life-threatening. Vickie and I both reminisced about days long gone, when private citizens could have their own fireworks in their own backyards on the 4th of July. We recalled parents and grandparents who really loved to set off their own fireworks and nothing awful had ever happened.

Yes, we are safer and saner than in those wild and crazy days when private citizens could celebrate the 4th of July with fireworks in their yards. No doubt many unsafe things have become seriously illegal today. But Vickie and I chose not to call the cops on those daring neighbors of ours who apparently thumbed their noses at all the pious bullshit about safety and sanity. We didn't mind a bit. In fact, we enjoyed their rockets with stars and Roman candles! I think we were a little jealous that we weren't so daring as our unknown neighbors seemed to be. I was very nostalgic about what my Dad used to do with fireworks in our backyard.

Safety and sanity are fine - in their proper place. But the world we now live in is rather substantially less interesting than those ancient days when private citizens could buy and use fireworks without fear of having them confiscated or being arrested for celebrating the 4th of July in their own personal way. Safer than those days? No question. However ...

Norman has a great fireworks display every year, but wouldn't it be just a bit more fun if we could actually do something that wasn't entirely safe and sane to celebrate this holiday? Must everything in our society be reduced to safety and sanity? Can't we ever be just a little bit crazy?

The Red Man's Revenge

There can be no real dispute that the native American population of the US suffered grievously at the hands of the European settlers. There can be no doubt that they were treated unfairly and unjustly, even by the justice standards of the white man. Of course, I wasn't party to any of that. Like most of us today, I simply inherited what was taken from the native Americans.

However, in today's world, considerable revenge is being inflicted on Americans by the scourge of the gambling casinos that have sprung up with the blessing of state and Federal government. Outside of Nevada, these new casinos generally are in the hands of the various "Indian" tribes. These are taking advantage of gambling addicts - people who are compulsive gamblers and have as much trouble controlling their addiction as those who smoke or who have become alcoholics or who use illegal drugs. [Curiously, another side of the Red Man's Revenge is the sale of tax-free tobacco in "Indian Smoke Shops" that also have become widespread.]

Gambling is a passion I never developed because I have some understanding of the laws of probability. If you gamble in a casino, you're going to lose. The more you gamble, the more you lose. No one walks away from the casinos a winner unless they walk away forever. Frankly, I don't call what goes on in a casino gambling at all - it's simply throwing away your hard-earned income. I consider something to be a gamble only when the odds are exactly 50-50, but the casinos have set the odds so they simply can't lose money. If they "pay back" 95% of their take, that means that they pocket 5% of the money they take in, day in and day out. When the odds are 5% in your favor, you want to encourage as many people as possible to participate. The more players, the bigger the take.

Part of the addiction may be the allure of "something for nothing" but I'm no expert on the psychology of gambling addicts. They apparently can't see or choose to ignore the reality that casinos simply can't be in the business of giving away money - they're in the business of taking in money from their customers, just like any other business. No one in a business that gave away money could stay in business for long. How the individual tribes distribute that income is another issue - one I'm not prepared to address. But casinos give no product or service in return - only whatever "entertainment" value is associated with the process of taking your money. I fail to see the entertainment of that, but that's just my perspective.

Gambling addiction has destroyed families, ruined lives, and created economic problems for millions of people. The compulsive gambler lies, steals, cheats - whatever is necessary to obtain the funds to continue to gamble. Those with this affliction aren't necessarily immoral or stupid; they're simply addicted to gambling. The pain and anguish this has caused compulsive gamblers, their families, and their friends is enormous. I'm not interested in legislating people's behavior (see my essay about the futility of marijuana prohibition), but it's evident to me that the casinos' gains represent a major problem for this nation. The native Americans are indeed obtaining revenge, whether or not that was their intent in opening these casinos. Prohibition isn't an answer but I don't know any easy answers, just as I have no easy answers for alcoholism, drug addiction, etc. We apparently have a host of sicknesses in our society, one of which is compulsive gambling. What does that say about us? I'm not sure the answer to that is going to be something good.

The American Ranking Obsession

I'm out on my storm chase vacation for this week and the next, and have just had one very exciting day - on 05 June - we saw the entire life cycle of a large, long-lived tornado in southeastern Wyoming and had a great vantage point for seeing both the tornado and the storm that produced it. It's just what I wanted from this year's chase! See Vickie's blog for some preliminary images.

So I run into some fellow chasers - and I start hearing about how this storm was second behind the great 26 May 2007 (or whatever) storm they saw. OK - what's my problem with this? Two questions: First of all, why in the world is it important for me to know where a particular event fits into your life experiences? I really don't give a damn about how this storm compares to whatever it is you've managed to see during your chase experiences! Why would you think that anyone besides yourself cares about your personal rankings?

Second, it seems we Americans have some sort of fetish about rankings. Isn't it enough to recognize that it was a great event? Does it somehow need the extra bit of recognition that comes with placing it in some sort of ranking order?

And who decides precisely how to place a particular storm chase event into a hierarchy? Ranking in sports is widely recognized to be futile and any effort to develop a ranking scheme is fraught with arbitrary decisions and subjectivity, anyway. If there was a way to rank storm events, it would have precisely the same arbitrary and subjective issues that sports ranking schemes have. Yet we seem bound and determined to place everything in its "proper place". For the most part, having been involved with some efforts to do rankings, I think I know more than most how silly most of this effort to create an ordering is, unless there is one simple number that encapsulates everything about some event. An event that can be characterized by a single number isn't a very interesting event, as I see it. Being able to establish rankings for it is pretty much a "who cares?" exercise.

Interesting events (like successful tornado intercepts) are complex because they have multiple facets - technically, they require multiple dimensions to describe. The strength and duration of the tornado, how visible it was, the structure of the storm that produced the tornado, the impact of the tornado, etc., etc., etc. That leaves us with the problem of deciding how to rank each of these aspects - is one facet unabiguously the most important? If so, what's the next most important factor? Who decides, and how would they get everyone to agree? Everyone who buys into this ranking obsession apparently has an opinion about what's most important to him/her. But it's just their opinion, and there's at least a finite chance that I'm going to disagree about how to weigh and combine all the different aspects of some complex event to produce a final ranking.

Hence, a universal ranking system for rating storm chase experiences seems to be an impossible quest, to say nothing of being a waste of time. Lacking such a system, why not just forget about trying to rank your chase experiences, or to compare yours to someone else's? Enjoy the moment. Savor its unique qualities because another such event will never happen again.

And don't bother explaining to me where it fits in your ranking hierarchy, if you have one. I don't give a shit.

American Sprawl

Jim Kunstler's dark visions for America include some pretty hefty hammering on the evolution of American cities. My friend Roger has recently posted a great blog about how the city of Savannah, Georgia is laid out, comparing it favorably to most plains towns and giving a good summary of what has happened. Here's my take.

Our cities had vast spaces surrounding them so expansion was an easy option. The explosion in automobile use allowed everyone the chance to work in the city and live in their own single-family home in countrified suburbia - the American version of English "country gentlefolk". When I was a boy in the Chicago 'burbs, my father rode a commuter train to work downtown. That train's business was usurped in the 60s by the development of expressways out to the 'burbs and the commuter lines went out of business. They ripped out the tracks in the 70s and made the right-of-way through town into a bike and walking path, which it remains to this day. Cheap oil powered the automobiles that enabled the expansion of the suburbs even as public intracity transport declined.

My life in that town as a youth was something like what Roger describes - we walked or rode bikes most everywhere we needed (although even then the car had become a convenient option to expand our horizon). My grade school was less than a block away from my home. Strip malls were just beginning - our 'central business district' was easily accessible to most people in town and had locally-owned businesses for the most part, not chains. The chains came in as I was growing up and forced out most of the locally-owned competition. The shift toward sprawl began as development of outlying parts of town made some things accessible only by car. I could walk to my high school, but it was nearly an hour's walk, so we rode a school bus and my father would drive me when the bus wasn't available (I didn't have my own car until I was in graduate school).

Chicago was accessible by bus so my high school friend and I could safely take the bus downtown, spend the day going to museums, enjoy a nice lunch in a restaurant, see a movie, walk along the lakeshore, and return home safely that evening - all before we were 16. Imagine letting your kids do that today!

Having traveled in Europe, I've seen they don't sprawl so much. Most people living outside the city park on the outskirts and walk in. Even relatively large cities are compact and many of the things you'd want to see and do are within walking distance. Most people don't live in individual houses, living instead in what we would call apartments, often located above city storefronts. The cities sprawl upward, not outward. There's frequent, affordable, comprehensive public transportation, including intercity as well as intracity transport. We have nothing like that anymore - whatever passenger train and bus lines existed in our past are mostly long gone, replaced by inefficient, gas-guzzling road vehicles and aircraft.

The time when we could afford this system is passing, quickly, hastened by the demise of cheap oil. Any sustainable system must look more like Savannah than Atlanta.

Polarization and beliefs

Although Jim Kunstler (see my blog links) has a very dark image of our future, certainly darker than I want to believe, there are some pretty obvious problems ahead for the Great American Lifestyle we've all become accustomed to since the 1950s. The question that should be on our minds right now is just how far the coming "adjustments" can go before the existing social contract for America breaks down. If we're unable to restore the national economy to something sustainable that has the confidence of the majority of citizens, then the unthinkable - the disintegration of our society - could occur.

History suggests that when social contracts collapse, opinions of moderates are swept away. Extreme radicals on opposite ends of the political spectrum gain adherents because, it seems that gradual, evolutionary solutions move too slowly to satisfy people in hard times. Anyone speaking on behalf of moderation and tolerance is likely to be overwhelmed by the slogans, promises, and rhetoric of extremist demagogues. Scapegoats are selected and advocacy of extreme measures that trample on civil liberties becomes the norm. Vying extremist factions make whatever promises they have to in order to seize power, without regard to their actual intentions for the future.

The potential for this sort of internal collapse is inherent in any society, but it becomes most virulent when times are difficult. Even in relatively good times, demagogues (self-chosen, megalomaniacal leaders espousing extremist views anywhere across the political spectrum) can always be found in any society. When the social contract is seen as acceptable for the majority, these extremists are marginalized and ineffective. However, they never go away entirely (like virulent bacteria) and when the situation takes a turn for the worse, they’re right there to take advantage of hard times. They thrive on social and economic chaos, when society's "immunity" to their toxicity is at its weakest, sometimes supporting (usually covertly) actions apparently contradictory to their aims, just for the purpose of further polarization and erosion of confidence in the status quo. Economic collapse magnifies social inequity and turns the have-nots against the haves, with the outcome likely to be bad for moderate views regardless of the "victors" in such a struggle. The lessons of history are clear on this.

Around the world, there's a trend toward religious fundamentalism. I believe this to be an indicator of cracks developing in the social structure. Inherent in religious fundamentalism is an "us against them" mentality that magnifies intolerance. If your beliefs differ from mine, then either you have to convert to our orthodoxy or we'll marginalize, disenfranchise, and perhaps eventually kill you for being different. Tough times amplify and spread this polarized mentality, often sanctified by the notion that God (or whatever name your particular deity goes by) is "on our side" against the evils associated with any other belief set (or lifestyle). Many people need to be given a moral compass by which to guide their actions, rather than deducing one on their own - thinking rationally is hard and easy answers are elusive (and usually misleading, with unforeseen consequences). When religious (or quasi-religious secular) beliefs are used to that end, then intolerance, which is built in to virtually all major religions, is fostered. Opponents are characterized as evil, or even subhuman, unworthy to be participate in the "new order" to come. Intolerance is a stepping-stone to persecution and "cleansing" of contrary elements in society.

Even more or less secular autocracies (like Hitler's Fascism or Stalin's Socialism) cloak themselves in a quasi-religious "orthodoxy" as all proponents of any other viewpoint are suppressed ruthlessly. The structure of these secular forms is virtually identical to theocracies with only minor word changes. "Cults of personality" are little more than attempted deification of the leaders, justifying demands for blind, unthinking obedience and intolerance for any contrary viewpoint.

This is a possible future for us – we stand now on what might be the crumbling foundations of the American Experiment in social order. Most Americans assume that we're immune to a slide toward a repressive, autocratic society. I'm not very confident in our immunity if times get really tough (as they did in Russia at the turn of the 20th Century, or in Germany in the 1930s). I fear that a collapse of the social contract could move us toward anarchy, civil war, and the rise of a demagogue to power, resulting in an intellectual "Dark Age" dominated by some form of dogma (religious or not) from which it might take a long time for a new Renaissance. And I suspect that if the USA falls, it will take most of the rest of the world down with it. What will emerge from that can't be known with certainty, but it would likely be very different from the world as we know it. I hope I don't live long enough to see this come to pass - the collapse will be awful and the values I cherish will be swept away, to be replaced by mere survival skills in a world turned cruel and unforgiving.

To hell with easy access!

A continuing battle with regard to America's scenic wilderness is the conflict between access and preservation. Wilderness areas can be difficult to obtain access to for those of us who are unable or unwilling to hike over challenging terrain to see the beauty of these wilderness areas. The National Parks and other nominally protected areas are under constant pressure to provide easy (often motorized) access to people who apparently only wish to "check off" visitations to great natural wonders. I say "No!" to those people, even if I'm becoming one of those unable to reach pristine wilderness. It's the very difficulty of access that has preserved such places. Let it stay difficult!

My position is affected by the fact that I'm getting older and less capable of hiking to gain access to those beautiful locations I would have found relatively easy to get at a few years ago. I can't stop the advance of time and my declining capabilities. But I can say without hesitation that I would prefer that we conserve those areas of natural beauty in preference to providing easy access for everyone. I say let access be denied to those physically unable to reach these wilderness areas, in preference to providing motorized, simplified access. Preservation trumps access, as I see it! It's not absolutely necessary that I (or anyone else) be able to see these places - for me, it's preferable that I know they'll be preserved for future generations. Access inevitably turns into exploitation.

You can call me a tree-hugger or whatever. It's far less important to me that you have a chance to see something beautiful, thereby destroying its beauty, than for me to know that its wildness has been preserved. If you (and I) can't get there by some simple means, then everyone is better off! The natural beauty of these places should outlive me - I prefer that their natural wonders be there for future generations instead of turned into some sort of touristic checkoff.

If we can save some semblance of these wild places, then that trumps any "access" argument, in my view of things.

The decline of stock photography

I’m constantly amazed at how little value people assign to photographic images. Over the years, there’s been a steady stream of folks who contact me, wanting to use my images for one purpose or another but aren’t willing to pay a license fee for that usage. Most of them want to use my images so their product will make money, but deny me the opportunity to derive income from my product!

I’ve made it clear on my Web pages that when the intended use is for science or education, and no one is being paid for anything in the process, I’m quite happy to donate my images. But many people who want to use my images for free – say on T-shirts for a charity fundraiser, or in a pamphlet providing information – see no problem with having to pay for the shirts, or for printing the pamphlet. In their minds, apparently, it’s reasonable to pay shirt manufacturers or printers, but it’s being unreasonable to expect that someone licensing images also has expenses to pay.

Instead, I’m offered the compensation of the user giving me “credit” for the use. The idea behind this is, evidently, is that I should be grateful for the free advertising. Imagine asking the printer of your pamphlets or the manufacturer of your T-shirts to be given the same “compensation” for their costs! It must seem to these people that high-quality, spectacular images are just lucky accidents and that I incur no costs in obtaining them. Well, my creditors won’t take this “credit” in lieu of payment! I find the very idea insulting, actually. I’d rather not license my images at all than to give them away at little or no cost to these people who see them as having no value – except to help them make money.

The situation has not been helped by various trends in the stock photo industry: the rise of “royalty-free” and “microstock” image collections, where the asking price for images has been driven into the basement. A concurrent trend has been the emergence of corporate giants in the stock photo industry – in particular, Getty Images (and to a lesser extent, Corbis). These giants have also done two things that are photographer unfriendly. First, they’ve allowed a rapid decline in the cost of image licenses, believing that volume can overcome the reduced price-per-sale. Second, they’ve steadily eroded the “split” with the photographer – that is, the percentage of the sale income they share with the image creator (the photographer!). When I entered the stock photo business, large image agencies were sharing the income 50-50 with the photographers. Getty now has driven that down to where the photographer only gets 30% of the sale. Getty and Corbis also have absorbed many smaller, specialized image marketing companies, which maintain their business identity but are allowed to market images through Getty and Corbis. Those smaller image companies may provide a 50% split with the photographer, but that’s only after the giant takes its 70%. The photographer share is thereby down as low as 15% when Getty is involved. As a means of making a living, stock photography is becoming unworkable for photographers. If I actually depended on this income to survive, I’d not be surviving!

But the general perception that images should be “free” is pervasive. Even copyright protection is being eroded by the notion of “orphan images” – there is movement to allow the free use of images from any source if the user can’t locate the photographer. Embedding information about the photographer and the means to contact her/him has only recently been common in the industry and there are many who will simply remove that embedded information and then claim they tried to locate the photographer but failed, so it was an “orphan” work. Copyright protection eventually could vanish, meaning the eventual demise of income from creative work. This is further reducing number of reasons to pursue stock photography as a source of income.

Theocracy in Oklahoma

The religious right-dominated Oklahoma legislature recently has voted to approve a bill authorizing the erection of a Ten Commandments display at the OK State Capitol. Once again, these Christian zealots are mixing their religion with politics, a notion contrary to the principle of separation of church and state that has been a cornerstone of this nation. The shameless pandering to voters by the so-called Oklahoma House of “Representatives” – who clearly don’t represent anyone not accepting the Ten Commandments as a cornerstone of their spiritual beliefs – is yet another indicator of the crumbling of our national commitment to protecting the rights of minorities. Many ignorant people see majority vote as the litmus test of democracy, but it’s not. Rather, it's always been the protection of the rights of the minority. In this case, putting the Ten commandments on the Capitol grounds is a clear violation of the separation of church and state, despite its being financed by private money (the author of the legislation, Rep. Mike Ritze, Republican, Broken Arrow, OK).

This seems to be an outgrowth of a 2005 decision by the Supreme Court ruling that by a 5-4 vote indicated that a display of the Ten Commandments on the capitol grounds in Austin, Texas, was somehow more historical than religious and so was not considered to be unconstitutional. Such a ruling is manifestly preposterous and evidently reflects how successful G.W. Bush was at packing the Supreme Court with ideological allies.

The threat of Muslim violence seems to have fueled the continuation of a religious revival here in the USA, and especially in “red” states. What the believers fail to recognize is that what the Muslim fanatics want in their nations is precisely what these Christian fanatics are trying to achieve here: a theocracy. It’s fine to have pride in your beliefs, but it’s contrary to the principles of this nation to force your beliefs on others.
==============================
Response to El Gran Rogelio:

Erecting a display of the Ten Commandments indeed doesn't establish a theocracy, but it's a major step in that direction. Regarding all the rationalizations you've provided: suppose a Muslim benefactor wished to erect a display of writings from the Koran on the Oklahoma State Capitol grounds, perhaps right next to the Ten Commandments display? Imagine the (literally) righteous indignation from most of people favoring this display of the Ten Commandments! The religious connection between the State and the Christian religion here is unmistakable and unambiguous. The Ten Commandments is in no way a historical document, unless you believe literally in the historical truth of the Bible.

There are many aspects of modern US government that are not formally codified in the Constitution, including the notion that all men are created equal (that's only in the Declaration of Independence). So what? The traditional "separation of church and state" was supported by many of the Founding Fathers and is inherently the right thing to do for a government that wishes to avoid a state-supported religion. I reiterate: the key to democracy is not majority rule. It's the protection of the rights of minorities. I view this action as an encroachment by the religious right - and can legitimately invoke the prospect of a "slippery slope" argument. If we merge the Ten Commandments with the government of the state of Oklahoma, why stop there? Why not institutionalize more religious elements into the state? Prayer in schools, religious iconography, and on, and on, and on. Eventually, the majority get their wish for a theocracy and the minority are systematically shut out and perhaps eventually persecuted for daring to be different. The US would be analogous to Iran ...

Not being forced to read the display is irrelevant. It's a clear intrusion of religious dogma into the state government.

Bill Leftwich has passed

 Bill Leftwich and his charming wife, Mary Alice.  This was in 2005, I believe.

Another friend of mine has passed. I heard last evening that Bill Leftwich died in his sleep the evening of 27 April in Fort Davis, Texas, at the age of 85. Bill was a local figure of some note in the Fort Davis community and I met him through our mutual friends, Hal and JoAnn Belknap. JoAnn passed on this sad news. [Hal died a little more than a year ago now.] Bill was a complex character and a man of few words, but easy to get to know. His likes and dislikes were evident but so was his warm heart. He had a sense of humor as dry as southwest Texas.

Bill's primary passion was art and he produced a considerable body of work as a painter, sculptor, and writer - all of it focused on themes associated with his life experiences. His home was also his studio and I was afforded the opportunity to visit with him and his wife, Mary Alice, and see many examples of his art. Bill was a proud graduate of Texas A&M University - and he remained a fiercely loyal Aggie fan right to the end. Bill also served his nation in WWII as a tank commander - he was commissioned to create a sculpture of Audie Murphy for Camp Mabry, in Austin and I know he did another sculpture for his beloved Texas A&M, which I know pleased him a lot.

I'm very sorry about his loss, and know that he touched many, many people who will miss him, myself included, but I'm glad to have had the privilege to know him. My condolences to Mary Alice and the rest of Bill's family.

Two guys wearing cowboy hats ... one isn't a real cowboy, though ...

A milestone along a journey

Well, it's finally happened ... on 14 April, my son Chad and his wife Candice made me a grandfather. I've posted the first pictures I've received here. Chad and Candice are in Heidelberg, Germany, so I'm afraid it will be some months before we get to see our new granddaughter - pictures will have to do for the time being. Seeing Chad and Candice posing with their new baby reminds me of that time in January of 1976 when Chad was born and we were proud new parents - as seen in this image while Vickie was still in the hospital, before she and Chad came home. A long journey for Chad and Candice has just begun - likely not without bumps in the road, but the blessings outweigh the challenges.

A wonderful evening

Another cyclone approaches ... it's been an incredible spring so far. Strong winds from the south, followed by strong winds from the north. Reverting to south winds, to be followed by north winds once again. A cycle of monumental proportions. Thunderstorms are the result of these titanic forces at play. A feast of sensual pleaure. An awe-inspiring display of forces beyond our human comprehension.

Tonight ... lightning and thunder in a situation with little chance for severe. But I have a deep resonance with lightning and thunder, whatever the result. How do I express that feeling in my soul, when thunder crashes around me and rumbles on ... A beautiful sound that somehow connects to something deep within me. The total effect is awe-inspiring and readily penetrates into my psyche. If you don't find the experience of a thunderstorm to be special ... well, we're not going to be soulmates. My senses are full of the passage of cyclones. Whatever they do or do not produce, if they generate that sonic boom that reaches to the core of your being and you can't respond with awe and wonder ... well, perhaps you have a dead soul. We have no point of contact. You're somehow immune to the forces that shape our world. These forces are indifferent to human concerns, but have shaped us nevertheless. I feel my ancestors, cringing in the dark, shuddering in fear as the atmosphere responds to those unseen forces - the show goes on whether we observe or not. I love it so. The more massive the processes, the more awestruck I am. Imagine being at the nexus of a tornadic supercell. Words fail me. Such an experience is beyond verbal description ... it is a glimpse into the infinite. Religious without any deity.

If you're indifferent to such a message, then I feel sorry for you. It's a chance to be viscerally related to the processes around us that have shaped our world. Be indifferent to these forces at your peril. I'm awestruck in the face of them. I delight in their dance and feel connected to the infinite in their presence. It's a connection to the infinite that surpasses by far the mere religious.

Okie Counter-Evolutionaries

When the story broke to the effect that some Oklahoma legislators were upset about Richard Dawkins coming to OU for an invited public presentation about evolution, my first reaction was to sigh but I wasn't necessarily motivated to go off on a rant about it. After all, this is a thoroughly "Red" state, so this sort of "thinking" is just part of the fabric of living here. But an article in today's OU student paper about it finally got to me.

As of this time, there are charges and countercharges regarding this OU-sponsored talk, with both sides accusing the other of censorship. The OU people feel they're being harassed by the legislature, which could have an inhibiting effect the next time they're considering inviting another controversial figure to OU. The counter-evolutionaries feel that their public speakers need to have "equal time" and the university is effectively censoring their viewpoint.

Well, guess what folks - despite the attempts to cloak religious fundamentalism in the disguise of "intelligent design" theory - the alternatives proposed by these folks to evolution aren't science! Scientific presentations at a university aren't like broadcast journalism, where the so-called "fairness doctrine" applies, requiring opposing sides to be granted equal time. Perhaps Biblical versions of creation could be offered as religious seminars but they are not valid scientific alternatives to evolutionary theory. Hence, they aren't even talking about the same topics!

Furthermore, it would be absurd (although being absurd has never stopped zealots) to argue that if a famous physical geographer is invited to give a talk at OU, the advocates of Flat Earth theories need to be offered equal time. Or if a famous meteorologist comes to OU for a presentation, the proponents of forecasting by various means of divination (e.g., reading goat entrails or casting bones) should be allowed to air their views as alternative perspectives.

Unfortunately, it seems these fundamentalist legislators have no clue about how science works. If they can't see that Biblical creation myths aren't remotely close to science, it's likely because they don't understand much about the scientific process. Along the way, Oklahoma once again finds itself revealing how ignorant some segments of its society really are.

These legislators argue that evolutionary theory is inconsistent with the beliefs of the majority of Oklahoma citizens and so should be barred from state funded university campuses. Regrettably, it might even be true that the majority of Oklahoma residents deny evolution and embrace Biblical creation stories! But to say that a state university should only invite speakers who reflect the viewpoints of the majority of a state's residents is contrary to what an educational institution should be doing. If anything, universities have a clear obligation to offer controversial figures an opportunity to speak, especially when their views clash with those of the majority of its citizens! Oklahoma's students need to be exposed to ideas that shake their foundations. To a considerable extent, that's what universities are supposed to do.

I recommend that OU emulate the sentiments of the University of Wisconsin, as immortalized in the "Sifting and Winnowing" plaque affixed to Bascom Hall on the UWisc campus in Madison. The plaque reads:

Whatever may be the limitations which trammel inquiry elsewhere, we believe that the great state University of Wisconsin should ever encourage that continual and fearless sifting and winnowing by which alone the truth can be found.

The story of this landmark can be found here. OU bureaucrats would do well to offer an equivalent reaction to this controversy.

The Red River of the North

Recently, the news includes stories of hardship and sandbagging along the Red River of the North (not to be confused with the Red River between OK and TX). It was just 1997 (less than 10 years ago), when massive flooding along the Red River produces disastrous consequences, especially for Grand Forks, ND. This year, snowmelt combined with impending spring precipitation is creating a flood problem along the RRotN once again. How many times does it take for it to sink in (pun intended) that having their cities include development within the flood plain of a flood-prone river is ... not very smart? The whole nation will help to bear the cost of massive flood-prevention efforts that may or may not suffice to prevent inundation of property and perhaps even create casualties. And the whole nation will have to underwrite much of the costs incurred as a result of flood damage. Why should we pay for the stupid choices of someone else?

This is very much comparable to rebuilding New Orleans after Katrina - that city will continue to represent a hazard so long as it remains where it is. And New Orleans is far from the only storm-vulnerable location along the Gulf coast and the East coast. Furthermore, Katrina was not the dreaded "big event" that still remains over the horizon for New Orleans. The worst is yet to come and no one knows how much longer New Orleans can continue to be as lucky as they've been for many decades.

Unlike New Orleans, however, cities along the RRotN have much more frequent reminders of the foolishness of flood plain development in which they've participated. They have even less of an excuse for ignoring the very plain messages that the RRotN has been sending every few years. And there are many other cities along many other rivers all over this nation who are equally to blame for what is going to happen to them when their rivers burst out of their banks and inundate their floodplains. Flood insurance is not the solution to this problem - it simply allows stubborn people to replace their vulnerable property and stay in the same place! We need to develop land use regulation that will move us away from this precarious position, so widespread around the nation. The RRotN is perhaps only one of the most frequent reminders of our shortsighted policies for land use.

---------------------
Reply to comment by Aaron Kennedy:

I'd be disappointed if you chose not to be completely honest! Narrow? In what way is my viewpoint narrow? I believe I understand the history of why cities wound up on rivers, but if we've learned anything in 100+ years, it should have been that developing the floodplain with structures is a costly mistake. In some years, even agricultural use will result in catastrophic losses to the farmers. Sure, floodplains are fertile, but why ask those not farming a floodplain to help pay for your losses? [Insurance companies spread their costs around all their policyholders via increased premiums.] If you took the risks, you should have to pay for it with the profits you made farming that fertile land in non-flood years.

Regarding GFK, if they've used Federal money to move out of the floodplain as a result of the 1997 flood, good for them. That's a much better use of external underwriting (either directly from the government or from insurance companies) than putting it into rebuilding in the same location after the floods recede. When we abandon developments within floodplains, we won't be paying that price repeatedly for recurring damage. If you use your flood insurance to repair and rebuild in the same location after you've been flooded, then indeed - shame on you.

Tim Marshall and the Truth

Tim and I chatting at the 2014 ChaserCon.  Unfortunately, I don't recall who took this shot.

I recently returned from the 2009 National Storm Conference put on by TESSA in Colleyville, Texas. There were some great presentations there by Chris Novy and Tim Marshall.

Circumstances associated with this trip permitted me the luxury of spending some time with Tim and his wife, Kay. I really enjoyed that opportunity. Among the many things we chatted about was our involvement in the business of weather consulting, and Tim told me several disconcerting stories about how he's been pilloried by various people for his commitment to the truth. Tim's received hate mail and even death threats! I can understand easily how someone whose home has been swept away by hurricane-induced storm surge might be upset when they find out that their homeowner's insurance doesn't cover flood damage. They've found out, too late, that their damage isn't covered. It's also evident that they'd be angry about Tim's finding that the damage was done by storm surge rather than by tornadoes. Tim is uniquely qualified to do what he does - he has Master's degrees in both meteorology and civil engineering - and is recognized nationally and internationally as one of the best, if not the best at assessing storm damage. People may not like his interpretations of storm damage, but they haven't anything on which to stand when attempting to discredit him and his findings. So the opposing lawyers simply make up false and misleading things to convince a jury that Tim's testimony is dubious.

The sad fact is that anyone who has built close to the shoreline or on barrier islands has put themselves in the center of a bullseye. If they had the appropriate flood insurance, they might be able to rebuild after a hurricane, but it is more than simply foolish to do so. Rebuilding in an area hit by a hurricane is a choice to remain in the bullseye, and the insurance companies are going to pass on the costs to all their policyholders. This means that all policyholders around the country are paying extra premiums that only benefit a few foolish, stubborn people who rebuild in a location that inevitably will be hit again.

My recommendation is that all of that lovely beachfront property should either not be insurable at all, or the premiums should be so sky-high that most people couldn't afford the insurance to have permanent structures built on that property. It's well-known in the meteorology and natural hazard communities that we as a nation have overdeveloped locations such as beachfronts, that are subject to natural hazards (hurricanes, floods, beach erosion, etc.). It's outright stupid to build permanent structures in such places, and we all are paying extra for the bad decisions by developers and those who ignore or are ignorant of the hazards.

It pains me to learn that my friend Tim has been crucified for telling the simple truth. The idea that the vast devastation along the Gulf Coast by Hurricane Katrina was caused by tornadoes is so absurd that entertaining that idea never occurred to me. Tim's conclusions about this aren't the lies of an evil person selling his soul to the insurance companies - they are the truth, plain and simple. Whatever the legal system might decide about this issue in any particular case brought to trial is certainly important in the lives of those who've experienced such losses, but as should be well-known, the legal system is not about truth and justice.

Justice is not a hand-out to those who've chosen to live and operate in a danger zone. Truth is not such absurd fictions as the one that most of the damage in a landfalling hurricane is first caused by violent tornadoes in the rainbands and only secondarily by storm surge. When people choose to build permanent structures in clearly dangerous locations, they should know two things: (1) precisely what their risks are and the consequences of the choice to build there, and (2) their personal responsibility if they choose to go ahead with that decision. Although the developers rightfully share some of the blame, those who choose to buy into these developments have to bear a part of the blame as well - it's their responsibility to learn about the risks. Ignorance is no excuse.

People who tell the truth often are punished for it by people who don't like to hear that truth. My friend Tim is one among many who remain committed to the truth despite the inevitability of being criticized for telling that truth. We need to protect our nation's truth-tellers - we need desperately to learn the truth. And we need to recognize that government has an important role to play in limiting or even preventing the development of dangerous locations (such as beachfronts and flood plains) for the sake of greedy developers and ignorant purchasers of those developments. The cost to this nation is too high in these tough economic times and the unnecessary disruption of human lives (to say nothing of the outright casualties) is simply unacceptable. People directing their anger at truth-tellers like Tim Marshall are misdirecting that emotion.

EJSSM Excitement!

I've just returned from a face-to-face meeting* with most of the members of the Advisory/Editorial Board for the Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology. I won't bore you with a tedious description of that meeting, but I came away very excited about what we hope to accomplish in the next few years. It's a great privilege for me to have colleagues as dedicated to the science as this group is.

Although introducing a brand-new journal with no organizational infrastructure support has been a slow process, it's my belief that we've already succeeded in publishing a number of excellent contributions and my hope that the future will include many, many more from diverse authors. I'd like to summarize some of the existing unique features of EJSSM:

1. Open review. Reviewers are not anonymous, which encourages a spirited but civil discussion of the comments between the author(s) and the reviewers. The substantive comments by the reviewers and the author responses are included in the final version of the paper. This allows readers to understand the review process leading to the final published form. Further, many interesting points can come up during manuscript reviews but usually never see the light of day when the exchanges between the author(s) and reviewers are not made public.

2. Multimedia. In addition to the manuscript's text, the authors can make available a diverse set of multimedia, including animations, sound files, programming code, datasets, and so on. These additions are hotlinked from the PDF files comprising the formal publication.

3. Affordable publication charges. Publication costs for files up to 50 Megabytes in size are only $50. There is no extra cost for color figures

4. Open access. Once articles are published, they are available to anyone at no cost. Readers wished to be informed about new publications can be notified by email when new papers become available.

5. Rapid turn-around. An important EJSSM goal is to have the paper proceed as rapidly as possible from submission to publication. A manuscript requiring only minor revisions after review can be published and available within a few months.

6. Diverse topics and content. Because "severe storms" has been defined by EJSSM with a very liberal interpretation, many topics other than deep convective storms are welcomed (e.g., severe extratropical cyclones, duststorms, winter weather, severe turbulence, heavy rainfall, etc.). We also solicit contributions that offer might not otherwise find a place in a refereed journal - for example, articles that are are primarily tutorial can be considered, especially when they offer insight into some heretofore unrecognized aspect of severe storms meteorology .

In addition to these features, we are hoping to introduce some exciting new opportunities to foster scientific discussions and to expand the scope of EJSSM publications.

1. An electronic "poster session". This is to become a relatively informal opportunity for severe storm scientists to post a short summary of their current research projects, in order to solicit comments from EJSSM readers. The intent is to simulate electronically the helpful exchange of ideas and feedback that can occur at poster sessions during scientific conferences, when authors have a chance to interact informally with interested colleagues prior to submitting their findings for consideration in a refereed journal (such as EJSSM). This is particulary helpful for students, who can obtain valuable input from established scientists in their research topic, but anyone can gain from this sort of informal interaction. These discussions will be moderated, in order to avoid the uncivil exchanges that can develop with unmoderated message boards. Scientific discourse is an art that requires some experience and a commitment to good science.

2. Special focus issues of EJSSM. From time to time, perhaps when a regional conference or workshop is called, the presenters want to have their presentations become formal contributions to a referreed journal. Some journals do indeed have a history of publishing whole issues devoted to the presentations from a conference, and we hope to emulate that with EJSSM. With all of the existing features of EJSSM (above), the production of important contributions in the form of refereed papers from conference presentations should be facilitated.

The board was unanimous in our hope to create a medium that fosters the notion of science as a continuing discourse, not an archive of established facts. When economic factors restrict the number of face-to-face interactions a scientist can have, the electronic options we seek to provide with EJSMM can compensate to some extent for this loss of face-to-face time. Further, we all believe that individual publications are only milestones along a path of continuous evolution of scientific ideas. That evolution is dependent on interactions among scientists so EJSSM seeks to expand the opportunities within which those interactions can happen. And we hope to allow severe storms meteorology students to begin to follow and eventually contribute to that discourse as early in their careers as possible.

____________________
*Present: Me, Bob Maddox, Roger Edwards, Elke Edwards, Erik Rasmussen, John Monteverdi, Ryan McCammon, Al Pietrycha, and the Board Chair, Jim Johnson. Absent: Brian Curran, Amos Magliocco, Bill Eckrich, Dave Schultz

A tribute to Yoshi Sasaki

My advisor in graduate school was Prof. Yoshikazu Sasaki, who co-founded the OU meteorology program (with Prof. Walter J. Saucier - another great individual). I've already acknowledged Yoshi's importance to my career in an essay here. He was all that I could ever have asked for as my advisor!

It's my clearly biased opinion that he is the best professor that the OU meteorology program ever had and his track record of accomplishment will be difficult even to approach. I'm very proud to have been his student and don't believe he can get enough credit for his contributions - not just to meteorology but also the city of Norman and the state of Oklahoma.

He recently turned 80 and he's still busy with all sorts of projects, including helping younger meteorologists. However, I just learned some news today (02 March) I want to share:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Feb. 27, 2009
Dr. Yoshi Sasaki Day Declared in Oklahoma

To recognize Yoshi Sasaki’s hard work and dedication as a long-time member of the Governor’s Advisory Council on Asian-American Affairs, Governor Brad Henry, by proclamation, declared Jan. 2, 2009, as Dr. Yoshi Sasaki Day in Oklahoma.

Sasaki is currently the George Lynn Cross Research Professor Emeritus within the School of Meteorology and is also one of the founders of the school.

“It is an honor to be recognized for my work within the field and within the state of Oklahoma,” Sasaki said. “I have enjoyed my time spent on the Advisory Council and have seen much progress from the efforts of all involved.”

Sasaki’s interest in storm prediction began early with his studies at the University of Tokyo. His research topic as a doctoral student was the development of a numerical and objective prediction technique to track typhoons. This area of study was prompted by a typhoon which caused a ferry to sink and hundreds of people to lose their lives because of an incorrect subjective typhoon track forecast. Sasaki and a colleague received an award from the Meteorological Society of Japan in 1955 for their research on the development of the world’s first numerical prediction of a typhoon track.

Sasaki’s journey to the United States began after he finished his dissertation at the University of Tokyo in 1955. He and his wife Koko moved to College Station, Texas, where he accepted a position at Texas A&M as a research scientist.

While in Texas, Sasaki discovered that Oklahoma had the maximum frequency of tornado occurrences in the United States in the 1950s. However, OU did not yet have a meteorology program. He saw the opportunity for advancement in tornado research.

In 1960, Sasaki headed north to Norman and joined Walt Saucier to become a founding faculty member in OU’s meteorology program.

“Tornadoes and associated disasters stimulated my scientific interest to reveal the mysteries of tornadogenesis and to help develop accurate prediction technology toward the goal of protecting people and properties from tornado disasters,” Sasaki said. “It was my great feeling that I might be able to contribute something to protect people and properties from natural disasters.”

While at OU, Sasaki became the School of Meteorology’s first George Lynn Cross Research Professor in 1974 and the second Director of the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) from 1981-1986.

Techniques developed from Sasaki’s internationally-renowned research in variational data assimilation remain a cornerstone of modern-day meteorological analysis at operational weather prediction centers around the world.

Sasaki’s students have also achieved great things within the field of meteorology. Joe Friday, one of his earlier students and former Director of the National Weather Service, played a key role in securing significant funding from Congress, working with OU President David Boren, then a U.S. Senator, to establish the successful, first nationwide Doppler Radar Network for detection of tornadoes and severe weather.

"From the time Yoshi Sasaki arrived in Oklahoma in 1960, he has been engaged 110 percent, with not only the University, but the city of Norman and the state," said John Snow, dean of the College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences. "Oklahoma has a stronger economy and is a better place to live because of his efforts over the last 50 years. Yoshi remains an excellent example of an outstanding faculty member fully engaged with the wider community."

Among his many honors, he has been elected as a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, presented the Fujiwara Award from the Meteorological Society of Japan, awarded the “Order of the Sacred Treasure” by the Emperor of Japan and appointed as an Honorary Consul General of Japan.

In 2004, Sasaki was inducted into the Oklahoma Higher Education Hall of Fame for his service to OU and the state of Oklahoma.

The Governor's Advisory Council on Asian-American Affairs was established to provide advice and assistance to the Governor on policy issues related to the arts, economic development, health and human services, human resources and education affecting the Asian-American population of Oklahoma. All Council members are appointed by the Governor.

I can't begin to detail the greatness of this man in a blog, but I certainly want to take this celebratory occasion to point out what a blessing it was for me to have learned from him. He and his wife, Koko, are among the finest people it's been my pleasure to know.

Emails about respect for military service people

Of late, it seems that many of my conservative friends and family have seen fit to forward me all sorts of stuff about respect for those who have served and/or are serving today in the military.

I’ve written at some length about my military service elsewhere, so I shan’t repeat all that here. Suffice it to say two things. (1) The views of service people vary considerably from one to the next – there’s no simple way to distill how service people feel about the military and their service within it. In particular, people sending me these emails seem not to grasp how I feel about these topics. (2) My opinions about this are definitely the result of my having been called to service in the time of an unpopular and unnecessary war – in Vietnam.

For a long time, my service in Vietnam was something I felt ashamed of, primarily because I chose the path of not actively opposing the Vietnam War by either refusing to be drafted or by leaving the country for Canada. I felt shame precisely because even before being called to service, it was evident to me that this was a bad war. Allowing myself to be drafted and going into the Army was an act of cowardice – I was afraid to make my actions consistent with my beliefs – a form of hypocrisy. With time, my attitude about my service has changed somewhat. I've forgiven myself for my fear. While I maintain my belief that the Vietnam War was a tragic mistake for the US, I’m no longer ashamed of having done my duty for my country when it called – like my father before me, and my son after me – in a war on foreign soil.

I don’t resent anyone who managed to skate out of military service in a foreign war, but only insofar as they don’t become “chicken hawks” – those who favor US participation in foreign wars so long as they themselves aren’t called to serve in it. I hold all chicken hawks in complete contempt. If you’re not in the ranks volunteering to do your duty in such a war, then you have no right to ask anyone else to make the sacrifices you’re unwilling to make.

Because the Vietnam War became an unpopular war, many of us who served in the military at the time were subjected to various forms of disrespect. It was a bad time to be a service member. In recent years, it seems that civilian attitudes toward the military have changed dramatically, even including civilians who might oppose US participation in a foreign war. The phrase is “You can hate the war, but you shouldn't hate the warriors.” I believe in that principle, and I certainly don’t need an onslaught of email forwards espousing this position to influence my decision to follow that admonition. Whatever we might think about the political basis for a war on foreign soil, we should honor the sacrifices made on our behalf by our young men and women.

However, I believe we also should honor the sacrifices made by people whose beliefs cause them to refuse military service. From where I sit, conscientious objectors reflect the high ideals many of us claim to have. If, as has happened in the past, they’re prosecuted for their beliefs, then even though we may not believe as they do, we should honor the courage of their convictions.

Obviously, I already believe we should honor all those who served our country in all foreign wars in the past, popular or not. I need no email message chiding me to have respect for WWII and Korean War veterans. I understand them a lot better than many of those who’ve sent me these emails but who've never served in the US military.

Frankly, I’m more than a little tired of receiving these email forwards. Many of them carry implicit messages with which I definitely disagree. For instance, although burning the American flag is something I would never do, it’s my opinion that American service people gave their lives to protect the right for Americans to express themselves freely. Burning a flag is a symbol of protest, and it shouldn’t be considered a crime, ever. If we get to the point where a symbolic act becomes a crime, then the sacrifices by our service members in the past will have been in vain. Freedom of expression is, perhaps more than any other principle of American democracy, the most precious of our rights here in the USA. I’m quite willing to let anyone with beliefs and viewpoints different from my own express those opinions, but I’m becoming concerned about the belligerence and implied violence against those with different beliefs that often lurks just below the surface of many so-called “conservative” Americans. Expression of opposition to government policies and activities is a necessary component of American democracy and is at the heart of what is good about the USA. If you don’t like what I say, then you’re free to disagree, but you should be willing to defend my right to say it – anything less than that is pure hypocrisy.

Origins

"Chuck's Chatter" is a reincarnation. When I was in high school, I was privileged to have a sports column. In that column, in my high school newspaper's sport section, under the title of "Chuck's Chatter" (with a by-line) I once wrote the following editorial:

Willowbrook's physical education program is one of the finest in the state. This can be attributed to the excellent coordination between a program of physical development and application of certain skills to sports and games.

This idea leads the students to realize that physical health can be fun. Certainly this is in keeping with the president's fitness program.

However, do broken limbs also support this idea? Do cracked digits and smashed noses encourage healthful recreation?

Such deplorable accidents happen daily in the sport of speedball. In this sport, the object is to kick or carry a ball into an end zone guarded by a goalie. In the attempt to gain possession of the ball, heavy blocking is responsible for many of the injuries sustained. There are rules against clipping, or hitting from behind, but they are often disobeyed and overlooked. Broken arms and fingers can be the result.

During the confusion of the attempt to get points, often the ball is kicked with great force into the faces of the players. In addition, the players often strike each other accidentally, with the result that noses are smashed and eyes are blackened.

Often while scrambling for the ball, a boy gets kicked hard in the shin with consequent cuts, bruises or sprains.

The number of serious injuries over the years is larger than it should be. These injuries are the fault on no one person in particular, the blame falling on the game itself. The lack of equipment plus an inadequate number of teachers to watch the progress of the game also contributes to the danger. These factors prevent speedball from being a safe high school PE sport. It should be discontinued or modified to make it safer.

This column followed from my having a broken thumb after being clipped in the course of a speedball game in PE. I didn't imagine that my criticism would create a firestorm of response from the PE teachers, resulting in a "retraction" in my column in the next issue of the paper:

A final word on my last column. The accidents which have happened are not daily occurrences. This was an error on my part.

This was my first, but not my last, experience with the "powers that be" within a bureaucratic system. I suppose I was unhappy about what happened to me in my PE class, and I know that other students were injured in speedball, as well - but I had no idea that the system wouldn't respond well to criticism by a high school student on the basis of actual occurrences. I was forced to "retract" my comments, although I managed to make my retraction somewhat muted over what was originally demanded. In effect, my retraction wound up being close to a "non-retraction" if you read it carefully. The PE teachers apparently were satisfied, and didn't realize how carefully I'd worded that apparent retraction. PE teachers in high school aren't known for recogition of subtleties in wording.

My lack of respect for arbitrary authority springs from this (and other) experiences. To me, respect is earned, not just a function of someone's position in a hierarchy. My views on this haven't changed in 50 years.

The economics of tornado damage

Lately, I've been wondering about the significance of the dollar damage estimates for tornadoes provided by, say, Storm Data. These numbers seem to come out within a few days of an event, and I'm pretty uncertain about their real meaning. I'm guessing that someone (it's unclear just who) has estimated the cost of structures damaged or destroyed by a tornado. Apart from uncertainties associated with these estimates (and I know little about those uncertainties), this seems to be a vastly oversimplified way to understand the economic impact of tornadoes.

Of late, we've been seeing a fascinating impact story on TV about Greensburg, Kansas (virtually wiped off the map by a tornado in 2007): the "greening" of Greensburg. This had been a small town whose main claim to fame was the world's largest hand-dug well. Now, it seems that the town is being rebuilt in a way to make it a model for an environmentally-conscious community. In the long run, the tornado might have had a positive impact on Greensburg! This is not to minimize the significance of the losses, but to suggest that, at least in economic terms, Greensburg might turn out to be substantially better off than they were before. The jury is still out on this, of course, but there's cause for some optimism.

In 1999, the tornado outbreak of 3 May in Kansas and Oklahoma hit the town of Stroud very hard. Its main industries included an outlet mall on the Interstate through town, a factory, and a hospital. Apparently, after being heavily damaged, the outlet mall and factory were not rebuilt, costing the town jobs and income. Where does that impact show on the ledger for that tornado? This is an obvious economic impact that isn't accounted for at all in the dollar damage estimates after the fact.

It seems to me that economics is another example of a complex, highly nonlinear system (as is the weather itself). Deep understanding is required to do a comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of a devastating natural hazard event. There are all sorts of costs that aren't accounted for in the damage done to structures. The cost of the physical and mental trauma, the loss of income when people aren't able to go to work, the business losses by being shut down along with inventory damaged or destroyed. Plus, there are unaccounted-for benefits for some elements within a community - hardware store business might experience a large positive surge in sales of the means by which damage can be repaired, construction businesses experiencing a boom, replacement of obsolete or worn-out infrastructure (personal or commercial) with the help of insurance, and so on. Infusion of insurance, as well as state and federal funds can offset some of the damage costs. There are short-term and long-term impacts, the latter of which certainly are rarely, if ever, considered and definitely are not included in Storm Data.

I'm sure there are many elements of a community economy about which I'm unaware - I'm not an economist, after all - so I'm confident that a complete accounting of any specific tornado's impact has never really been done, to say nothing of the impact of the 1000 or so tornadoes that occur in the USA every year. Therefore, this topic seems ripe for a collaboration with some real economists. Unfortunately, the small number of economists I've mentioned this to aren't really looking for additional projects to fill up their copious spare time! I can understand their reluctance to add something new to their table, but it's disappointing.

If we want to have a clear understanding of the economic impacts of tornadoes, and I see many reasons why we meteorologists should want this information, then this is a major project just waiting to be done. It seems likely I won't be able to be a part of it, but I sure hope someone can make this happen!

The paradox of "affirmative action"

A recurring theme in America involves such things as the "Rooney Rule" in pro football, where NFL teams are required to interview (but not to hire) some minority candidates for coaching positions.

I've had various things to say in the past about various forms of prejudice, here and here, for example. This blog will, hopefully, be a short version of what I want to say. The whole notion of forcing employers to fill positions with historically underrepresented folks (blacks, Hispanics, women, ... whatever) in a segment is a form of reverse discrimination. That is, discrimination that favors the historically underrepresented. Can discrimination be used to solve the problem of discrimination? An interesting question, that.

It seems evident to me that discrimination, left unchallenged, likely will go on forever. Arbitrary exclusion tends to feed on itself. Without the federally-enforced requirement for integration in the deep South, it's likely that apartheid would still be in effect there. Has this changed the situation, for the better? I believe it has, although I think any person who was opposed to segregation would have preferred that people would have changed their minds simply by force of logical and moral argument. The fact is that some people will oppose change of any sort, even to the point of violence. Has racial hatred disappeared as a result of forced integration? Not hardly. But people forced into contact sometimes change their minds when confronting real individuals rather than abstractions. Bigotry of any sort certainly can withstand frontal assault for a long time, but when you actually know and work with someone who perhaps got a position because of reverse discrimination but who evidently deserves respect for their actions, it becomes difficult to justify irrational prejudice. Minds can be changed, slowly, one at a time.

There often is a hue and cry about affirmative action giving positions to unqualified people. This becomes a rallying cry for opponents to reverse discrimination. But you have to ask yourself, of all the lily-white males who dominate so many sectors of our society, are all of them competent? Look around yourself. Not by a long shot! What I think reverse discrimination accomplishes is to give historically underrepresented folks an equal chance to be incompetent, just like most of the current occupants of those positions! Along the way, a few of them just might prove to be more competent than most. But if they don't get a chance to fail, neither do they get a chance to succeed!

In the best of all possible worlds - surely not this world! - affirmative action wouldn't be necessary. But so long as people are excluded for arbitrary reasons, then I believe that this is a way up from entrenched "forward" discrimination. Hopefully, reverse discrimination is only a temporary measure, designed to put truth in the words "equal opportunity for all". I don't like quotas any more than most, but part of creating equal opportunity is for people to be given a chance when they otherwise can't even get their foot in the door. What happens after that depends on the individual beneficiaries of reverse discrimination - will some, or even most of them prove to be incompetent? Perhaps, but they should fail because they're incompetent, not because they're black, or Hispanic, or female, or whatever.

--------------
A response to Roger's comment:

Brutally simple, indeed. If we end affirmative action, then experience tells us that entrenched "forward" discrimination will continue. I agree racism works both ways. I agree that using discrimination to cure the ills of discrimination seems paradoxical or even wrong. But history shows us we won't minimize racism by ending affirmative action - we'll only maintain the status quo.

BTW ... I was not hired once because of affirmative action, and it was made clear to me at the time just why. But I did try elsewhere and eventually was given an opportunity. For many victims of forward discrimination, they're being excluded consistently and systematically.

To use a sports analogy, Ty Willingham apparently isn't a very good college head coach and he shouldn't have a guaranteed job indefinitely just because he's black. But historically excluded folks need to be given the chance, to fail or succeed. If they fail - outta there and try someone else.

What is it about sports?

On the day of the Super Bowl - arguably the biggest sporting event in the USA every year - I'm reflecting on why I even care about this or any other sport. My athleticism borders on the non-existent. The only sport I ever was decent at was tennis, and then only marginally so.

My participation is mostly limited to being a spectator. My favorites are: college football, college wrestling, baseball (not via TV, though), and drag racing. Pro football is mildly interesting but to me it pales in comparison to college football - that might be the topic for another blog someday.

I'm not certain I understand what I get from watching sport, but I think I can articulate some aspects of it that I enjoy, so here goes.

Fun

Ever since my first year at OU as a grad student, I found that being at the game - as opposed to watching via TV - created an atmosphere of fun. It was enjoyable to go crazy along with tens of thousands of other people. There's a sort of psychological relief tied to "letting go" and being in the moment. Other parts of life are put aside as you forget about "self" and your problems for a time. The disappointments are a price to paid for the high times, of course. Each event is another chance for excitement and tension followed by release - sometimes the bitter taste of defeat, and other times the overwhelming joy of victory. Intoxicating. My analytical side suggests this is just chemicals in the body. But who cares? It's just plain fun. I assume that being a participant is also fun, perhaps markedly more so, despite my quite limited experience.

Analysis

Speaking of my analytical side, every sport involves analysis. There are numbers to be collected and subjected to analysis and interpretation. Rules to be known. Insights to be gained from careful consideration of past events. Knowing the sport requires reading and developing an understanding about the subtleties. Being aware of the subtleties appeals to me. Anyone can see the obvious, but I enjoy digging deeper and finding that "common knowledge" includes misconceptions and myths that aren't consistent with a careful analysis. After all, I am a scientist.

Not being a participant means my knowledge is always limited. There certainly are many parts of sport that can only be known to those actually doing it. The closest I ever came to being a serious participant was as a manager for my high school wrestling team (long story!). No doubt that experience made me a collegiate wrestling fan for life. I'm confident there's a lot I don't understand about the sports I follow. It would be a disappointment to come to know it all, I suppose ...

Life Lessons

Before you groan over this one, hear me out. I see much of sport as containing allegories with the real game of life. Work ethics. Subordination of the self for the benefit of all. Accepting responsibility for your own actions. Moving past frustration and failures. The will to succeed coming from within yourself. I could devote many paragraphs to providing examples, but the point is that sports can contain life lessons, if that aspect of sport is pointed out to the participants. Clearly, sports aren't life and death events and it's certainly possible to take them far too seriously, but they also represent an opportunity to teach people about life. Good coaches always focus on more than just the game - they teach their players about how to live their lives outside of sports, as well.

The Dark Side of Sports

When fans and players take sport too seriously, a line has been crossed. One of the things I like about most participants in a sport is their sportsmanship. After the event, people who were bitter rivals during the game can still be friends. They can be happy when their friends succeed, even when it's at their own expense. The fans of the sport cross the line when they hate their rivals, and the fans of their rivals. Hating is the where the line resides. OU has a long-term rivalry with UTx and each side desperately wants to win the game between them. But some of my friends are UTx fans. Should I choose to repudiate our friendship over this? Sorry, but that's where I draw the line. I respect my friends and their choice of a rival team has the same origins as my choice for OU. Remember the golden rule, folks! Have fun with it - don't give in to the dark side ...

Moving on ...

In the last few years, misfortunes of various sorts have fallen on my friends, family, and colleagues. One of the more unpleasant aspects of growing older is that you see more and more of this with time. Friends, colleagues, and family members die, debilitating illnesses befall them, tragic things happen to them - sometimes by their own doing, and at other times seeming to strike out of the blue. These misfortunes seem to be completely uncorrelated to my opinions about who deserves what. I'm reminded of the line from the Clint Eastwood movie "Unforgiven" as William Munny (Eastwood) is about to take his revenge for the death of his friend Ned Logan (Morgan Freeman) on the Sheriff responsible, Little Bill Daggett (Gene Hackman) - Little Bill's final statement is "I don't deserve this" to which Munny responds "Deservin's got nothing to do with it!" as he pulls the trigger. Indeed, it seems good things and bad things happen to people all out of proportion to what we might think they deserve.

It's especially painful to witness bad things happen to the people we know when the misfortunes are so contrary to what we want for them. It can be so painful for us that we're struck dumb by the very evident inadequacy of words to express how we feel. How can mere words make that pain go away? The simple answer, of course, is that words are inadequate. Of course, the passing of a friend or family member isn't always as tragic as can be the process leading up to that loss - there clearly are times when death is a release and something of a blessing for the person dying and for the family and friends of that person. In other circumstances, death comes senselessly and suddenly, perhaps way too soon, and we feel the loss so deeply because of its finality - we've been robbed of someone we care about and delighted in being around. Debilitating illnesses or accidents can seem worse than death in some situations - the person we knew isn't there anymore even though their body may live on. It can be a particularly cruel fate for someone we care about.

If mere words are inadequate, why write these lines at all? If words serve any purpose at all, it's for letting others know as best we can that we all share these feelings. You're not alone in this agony, despite the fact that my words likely won't be able to do much about the situation. When bad things happen to good people in your life, the best thing you can possibly do is move on with your life. Don't be so selfish in your grief and sadness that you become wholly and permanently trapped in that ordeal. Ultimately, you have to put it behind you. Why? Because there are others who look to you for support and inspiration and love and who need those very things from you at least as much as you do. The passage through grief to acceptance is important, but ultimately, you give those whom you mourn the most important tribute by moving on and doing whatever it is that you need to do, as well as you can.

None of us are getting out of this alive, so what matters is what we do with the here and now.

There can be no logical understanding of why bad things happen to the ones we care about. Being alive always includes the heights of joy and depths of despair and everything in between. Why? I haven't any idea - it's nothing more than an empirical observation. Life is a great gift, that inevitably includes bad things as well as good. I believe we should try to drink deeply of it, including the sorrow as well as the joy. We're shaped by life into what we are and what we do. I believe we owe it to those remaining around us to move past the bad things that have happened to our friends and family - they're depending on us. Can we let them down?

I have no explanation for why, up to now, many of the awful things visited on my friends and family haven't happened to me. I don't understand why I've been so blessed - but I am thankful. Among the many blessings in my life have been some of those very people I've been describing who have experienced those terrible misfortunes. It pains me deeply for them to have to go through bad times. The best I can do often seems trivial, but I owe them that which I can do.

Remember that life provides you with opportunities to let people know how much you value their friendship or kinship. For your own sake, don't put off those opportunities too long. It's probably more for your own peace of mind (in retrospect) than it is for those to whom you express your love, respect, and friendship. But that expression also can make a big difference for the recipient, as well. Think of your own life, where something someone said to you made a big positive difference in your life. Don't let those words go unsaid because you feel you have all the time in the world. That time is guaranteed to no one.

Juxtapositions

Juxtapositions: Today is Martin Luther King day. Tomorrow, we inaugurate the nation's first black President, Barack Obama. Yes, to some folks, technically, he's only half-black - but the whole concept of racial identity is a myth. Yesterday, a relative sent me the following (verbatim):

----------begin forwarded email--------------
THIS WILL CURDLE YOUR BLOOD & BREAK YOUR HEART

Red versus blue counties - 2008 Presidential election
Interesting Statistics

Professor Joseph Olson of Hemline University School of Law, St. Paul, Minnesota, points out facts of 2008 Presidential election:

Number of States won by:
Democrats: 19
Republicans: 29

Square miles of land won by:
Democrats: 580,000
Republicans: 2,427,000

Population of counties won by:
Democrats: 127 million
Republicans: 143 million

Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by:
Democrats: 13.2
Republicans: 2.1

Professor Olson adds:

"In aggregate, the map of the territory Republican won by Republicans was mostly the land owned by the taxpaying citizens of the country.

Democrat territory mostly encompassed those citizens living in government-owned tenements and living off various forms of government welfare.

Professor Olson believes the United States is now somewhere between the "complacency and apathy" phase of Professor Tyler's definition of democracy, with some forty percent of the nation's population already having reached the "governmental dependency" phase.

If Congress grants amnesty and citizenship to twenty million criminal invaders called illegal's and they vote, then we can say goodbye to the USA in fewer than five years

Pass this along to help everyone realize just how much is at stake, knowing that apathy is the greatest danger to our freedom.
------------end forwarded email--------------

This morning I watched a replay of MLK's "I have a dream" speech from 28 August 1963 (the year I graduated from high school). He talked of America "becoming" a great country when it began to live up to its stated ideals: liberty and justice for all, all men are created equal, and so on. Will the United States of America ever live up to those ideals? I certainly don't know.

The divisive propaganda so deeply embedded in the email forwarded to me by my relative seems to bode ill for us ever achieving that goal. Fear has been the watchword of the outgoing GWB administration. Fear of many things characterizes the bigoted America I grew up with and where I now live, deeply embedded in a "red" state (somewhat ironic, that choice of color - given the now obsolete fear of communism that permeated my youth through to my high school graduation). I seem to live on a tiny atoll of blueness amidst a surrounding ocean of red.

Juxtapositions: Rednecks, Commie reds, red states and counties, the red Menace, red dirt, red blood, the red-white-and-blue, white power, black power, bloods and crips, bluebloods

During the past 8 years, it seems that we as a nation have been goaded by fear-mongers into surrendering our civil liberties in the name of security. The only seemingly inviolate right is the 2nd amendment – are gun-bearing societies all that secure? Do we really feel safer as a result of these measures? Was this undermining of freedom and the encouragement of gun proliferation the best way to “save” the USA? From where I sit, these measures are steps toward reducing the difference between the USA and those nations (and movements) around the world that crush any hint of dissent amongst their own people and use violence freely to further their own political ends.

Martin Luther King was inspired by the nonviolent methods of Gandhi, and his dream was to achieve social change the same, nonviolent way. He was gunned down – a fate he shared with Gandhi – and violence continues to be the American way, it seems. Look at our movies – surely a mirror of our national psyche – if you’re wronged, virtually any violent response is justified. Gang violence is spreading dramatically. Terrorism as a threat has increased, not decreased, as a result of the “war on terrorism” started by GWB and his cronies. We live in a perpetual state of yellow/orange threat. But I'm not so sure the threat is external ...

Even now ... as our national economy collapses from moral corruption in our monetary institutions, our national infrastructure crumbles for lack of investment, environmental degradation threatens the future of the world, an energy crisis looms on the horizon, our sons and daughters are dying or coming home - crippled in mind and/or body - in a pointless occupation and insurgency after a war justified for reasons that proved without foundation ... we mostly seem more concerned about ensuring our personal comfort and entertainment than in tackling our national issues. Can our new President change all of that? I don’t know, but it seems vastly more than any one man can do.

Our new President is a symbol of something good in America, but I’m not so confident America really believes in its own ideals enough to do something about those things that threaten our future. I don’t know if “red” America even understands the significance of our national problems – they’ve been lied to and bamboozled by the outgoing administration, to the point where these serious problems have been marginalized in the name of corporate welfare. Welfare for poor people is bad, but welfare for corporations is just fine. It’s critical for propping up the teetering mess we call our national economy. The division between haves and have-nots grows, with inevitable consequences …

It’s hard to be optimistic that America will become “great” by the standard set by MLK before it collapses from the multiple blows it’s setting itself up to experience. We would be better off embracing the contributions from all our citizens, rather than bigotry toward those not like us – blaming them for our problems, just as dictators like Hitler have done since time immemorial. Am I justified in such a dark vision for our future? I don’t know … I hope I’m wrong …